News and Opinions – Blog Chow

10/23

Barack Obama + 6.5

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Previous Poll Odds:

10/11

Barack Obama + 6.7

With the flurry of conflicting Presidential election poll data out there I decided to cut through it to come up with as accurate a number as possible. I use 6 polls that I consider to be the most accurate. I also use a 7th number that is an algorithm I put together to account for internet buzz.

I came up with this system simply to guage what is going on in the Presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain. It is mechanical and takes my own opinions out. I am not trying to influence opinion. I’ll leave that for the New York Times and the like. I am one person up against the media establishment, so I have no interest in trying to influence opinion with this – only measure it. For that reason I will stick with the algorithms in place. I will not do like the mainstream media and only report the poll(s) that come out in the way they like.

None of the polls out there are extremely reliable or you wouldn’t have 10+ point swings on the same day and they wouldn’t have to do so many if they were accurate. The difference from one poll to the next shows that the “scientific margin of error” is also flawed. We already know from history about that. But the polls can at least give a barometer of what’s going on. It can often show a direction of who has momentum. I believe that if the poll averages are within 4-5 points going into election day that either candidate could win.

Some of these large polls sample, in some cases, as much as twice as many democrats as republicans and don’t use likely voters as a standard. So you can see why these numbers just aren’t accurate. I believe that is intentional, but be that as it may. In my algorithm I adjust for poll size and likely voter status. I will update these numbers going forward every 1-2 days.